Modeling the viral infectious disease from infection to epidemic

eSMB2020 eSMB2020 Follow 2:30 - 3:30pm EDT, Monday - Wednesday
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Alexis Erich S Almocera

Univ. of the Philippines Visayas
"Modeling the viral infectious disease from infection to epidemic"
Mathematical models can integrate different components of an infectious disease to reveal novel insights into the long-term effects. Conventional models focus either on pathogen infection (in-host scale) or pathogen transmission (between-host scale). However, we have yet to establish a framework that unites the two scales. We employ a conceptual modeling approach, where the standard transmission parameter becomes a function of the viral load, coupling in-host virus kinetics with an immune response to a compartmental disease model. The stability of the steady states with simulations cast light on the extent of a chronic host infection to influence the severity of an outbreak. Our results lend support to the 'multiscale' paradigm of disease modeling, which can inform long-term, personalized, and data-driven strategies in disease control and healthcare.
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Virtual conference of the Society for Mathematical Biology, 2020.